Black In Business

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I opened that way because I will attempt to mix business and politics in one blog. This post will be about scenario planning. We learned how to do this in business school and it is a time to take your long range plans beyond the numbers. I came across a link to the Hartman Group that discusses scenario planning.
The Hartman Group recommends you plan once a year using the scenario guidelines. Your goal is to paint a picture of the future, you should look at; Technology, customer needs, suppliers, the environment and organizational dynamics. It is recommended to use a facilitator to help ensure the process flows.
For instance, If I were facilitating Bush, Cheney, and the millions of Americans that were for the invasion of Iraq, we would have written scenarios using the following format

“Mr. President, what if our shock and awe effort does not work, what scenarios are subject to follow”? We would list out the various scenarios and make plans to react in each case. We would hand write on a easel sheet with a color marker. We have items like, supplement our air strikes with a ground attack, find Hussein and kill him, ensure we have world and UN support.

Mr. President. How do you envision Iraq and life for the Iraqi people? We would expect to be treated like hero’s, to have a democratic government, the citizens would live in comfort, we will win the mid term elections and my approval ratings will go to record breaking heights. What is our plan to win the peace?
Under scenario planning, we would have detailed plans for what if Bush’s vision was wrong. We would have anticipated different scenarios that could go haywire. What if American soldiers kept dieing after we declared mission accomplished. What if we lost the support of the American Voters? What if the Iraqi people felt things were better under Hussein? What if there were no ends in sight?

As you will note, scenario planning did not take place as a war strategy. The outcome is still being evaluated but Bush’s power as President as eroded so far his own party leaders are frustrated. Make sure to plan for different scenarios in your business.
There are 2 major corporations that are used as examples of scenario planning. J&J is praised regarding the deaths a leading pain reliever caused.. Coke cola did not fair as well when they introduced a new Coke product